In this presentation, we introduce and describe our research collaboration with the Australian Capital Territory’s (ACT) Education Directorate to develop an analysis and projection tool for school enrolments. The School Transition Estimation and Projection (STEP) model simultaneously projects 130 public, Catholic and independent schools in the ACT by year and academic level using detailed administrative record-level data. The STEP model allows the tracking of student cohorts over time and projection of the main sources of enrolment, including pre-school entries, migration, school-to-school transfers, and graduation. The enrolment projections are based on patterns found in the historical data and the design of the model ensures consistency across schools and transparency in the sources of change, which can be linked to policy levers.